I actually did watch the last several games of the Caps; all except the Hurricanes game. And despite me saying how much better off they'd be if they'd lost those last several, they decided to take nine points in those last five games.
The result of that was that they moved up nine spots from where they would have been had they lost out. In terms of the draft lottery, their chance of getting the top pick dropped from 4.7% (roughly; that's the nominal chance, but New Jersey's guaranteed last place would have made it slightly better) to 0.5% (ditto).
So, did they get all those points by playing well? Well, fenwick 5v5 close says no; it says that they got very, very lucky. Part of that was Holtby and Halak playing very well (Holtby, in particular, looked fabulous), and part of it was very good luck at shooting. The third line, especially, looked very good.
In fact, in that Carolina game that I missed, each member of the third line scored a very nice goal. Quite a performance. The downside was that OV got another -2 in that game (tough to do in a 5-2 win, although the shortie allowed had a lot to do with it).
And it should be pointed out that all this happened with Green on the shelf again, as he was injured again. So the bottom two pairings were Orlov-Strachan and Carrick-Brouillette. And those two pairs were absolutely brutal at times, giving lots of tests to that goaltending. In the last game, Stamkos was allowed behind Orlov-Strachan twice in the first period (Holtby saved one shot, while the other went wide; that is not the way to bet, on Stamkos alone).
And it should also be pointed out that two of those games were shootouts, taking the Caps' total on the season to twenty-one (with a 10-11 record. Thank goodness they didn't match the Devils' winless record (0-13) in the shootout). Hard to believe that a team can go to the shootout in 1/4 of their games. I certainly hope that was a record.
Anyway, it was hard to decide on whether to be happy or upset at what happened. There was some really nice play over those games, but the results really didn't help the team at all.
And finishing with dueling shutouts, and losing when also shut out in the shootout? Yeah, that was the whimper. In fact, it was a terrible game. The Caps had all of seven shots in the first two periods (and eight shots that missed the net); they were just brutalized through that span. And the third period was only eleven shots; that's not bad, but not enough to make the entire game respectable, either.
A frustrating end to a frustrating season; it'll be interesting to see what happens in the off-season. I'm betting that both McPhee and Oates are gone (and certainly good riddance to the latter, despite my initial happiness at his hiring). The big question, in my mind, is if Dick Patrick accompanies them into that sunset.
And then there's the big question of who replaces them. I really have no idea who that might be, but I hope it's someone good.
Fingers crossed; go Caps!
20140414
Golden Sony?
I read David Pogue's recent review of the state of photography with some interest, but I did have a few comments.
The biggest thing I liked about the article was how he kept coming back to sensor size as a proxy for image quality. It isn't the only thing that matters (my five-year-old Nikon D90 isn't nearly as good as the new D7100, despite identical sensor size), but it does hold within a generation (the one exception I can think of is that medium format doesn't deliver the increased ISO flexibility that it should; I guess the camera companies think it's not worth the cost).
So I really liked that he showed scaled images of the sensor sizes of various cameras. My one question with the series, though, was whether the sensor size shown for an iPhone is the new 5s size, or that of the prior models.
This part is very important:
What he fails to note there, though, is that that is a simple fact driven by silicon yields, and that the sensor will, necessarily, go up quadratically with the increase in sensor size. The sensor isn't the only thing driving unit pricing, of course, but it's by far the largest single factor, because of that yield issue.
I'm going to come back to a couple more general issues, but first let's look at a specific issue he brings up:
The answer is you can't necessarily get the same photos. If you're just taking pictures of unmoving things, or in very good light, you might be able to do so. But there are several places where you're going to fall down. The biggest is in lens selection:
Then there's viewfinder vs rear screen. There are real advantages to a viewfinder, the biggest being that it keeps the camera closer to your body, which has several advantages: less distraction and greater stability being the biggest two.
Then there's controls. That extra size on the Nikon gives room for more controls, meaning that you can adjust settings faster.
And how about flashes. The closer the flash is to the camera, the harsher the light, and more likely to cause red-eye. It looks like there is an external flash (with a custom plug), though a small one. Like lenses, bigger does make for better pictures.
And then there's some oddball edge cases like ability to use tethered. Want to use a tripod with Arca-Swiss quick-release? Looks like you're SOL unless you want to go to the NEX5, or bigger (and it looks pretty awkward, even there).
Maybe all of those advantages aren't worth $50 (and size and weight) to you, but they are real advantages.
Yes, mirrorless will get to matching SLR, but it's not there yet.
The Sony's are pretty good, and worth considering. But they (so far) are only for certain styles of photography.
As a more general comment on the review, you should note that Sony's not terribly good with supporting their products, long-term. Look at the Alpha SLR; they've already basically discontinued that (the new A7* models have almost no connection to the older, pellicle mirror-based cameras, despite the naming).
You should also note that Sony's going in all these directions at once. Basically, they've got the money (and lack of market share) to be able to throw a lot of stuff against the wall and see what sticks.
Still, several photographers I know and respect have switched (but I should also point out that they're landscape photographers, who are least likely to be affected by Sony's shortcomings). I'm certainly not saying it isn't worth considering. Just be aware of what you're giving up, as well as what you're getting.
I'll certainly be watching. It isn't worth switching, for me, but it might be in several years. I'd certainly like to reduce weight. The D4 is a fantastic instrument, but it's definitely a heavy beast. And I don't choose light lenses for it.
The biggest thing I liked about the article was how he kept coming back to sensor size as a proxy for image quality. It isn't the only thing that matters (my five-year-old Nikon D90 isn't nearly as good as the new D7100, despite identical sensor size), but it does hold within a generation (the one exception I can think of is that medium format doesn't deliver the increased ISO flexibility that it should; I guess the camera companies think it's not worth the cost).
So I really liked that he showed scaled images of the sensor sizes of various cameras. My one question with the series, though, was whether the sensor size shown for an iPhone is the new 5s size, or that of the prior models.
This part is very important:
the camera companies cranked out new models that basically stuck to the same formula: Big sensor = big camera = big price.
What he fails to note there, though, is that that is a simple fact driven by silicon yields, and that the sensor will, necessarily, go up quadratically with the increase in sensor size. The sensor isn't the only thing driving unit pricing, of course, but it's by far the largest single factor, because of that yield issue.
I'm going to come back to a couple more general issues, but first let's look at a specific issue he brings up:
If I wanted to buy an inexpensive SLR, you’d better believe I’d get one of Sony’s NEX cameras. Why on earth would I want a camera that’s four times as big, 85 percent heavier, and $50 more expensive — if I could get the same photos from a smaller, lighter, less expensive camera?
The answer is you can't necessarily get the same photos. If you're just taking pictures of unmoving things, or in very good light, you might be able to do so. But there are several places where you're going to fall down. The biggest is in lens selection:
- Sony has nothing remotely approaching Sigma's 18-35 f/1.8 lens, in relatively normal lenses.
- How about long telephoto? I see nothing longer than 200mm, and that only at f/6.3.
- How about macro? All I see is one 30mm lens, and that at f/3.5. That means you need pretty good light, and be ok with a very small working distance (under 1")
- Fisheye? Only with a conversion lens.
- Perspective correction? Good luck with that.
Then there's viewfinder vs rear screen. There are real advantages to a viewfinder, the biggest being that it keeps the camera closer to your body, which has several advantages: less distraction and greater stability being the biggest two.
Then there's controls. That extra size on the Nikon gives room for more controls, meaning that you can adjust settings faster.
And how about flashes. The closer the flash is to the camera, the harsher the light, and more likely to cause red-eye. It looks like there is an external flash (with a custom plug), though a small one. Like lenses, bigger does make for better pictures.
And then there's some oddball edge cases like ability to use tethered. Want to use a tripod with Arca-Swiss quick-release? Looks like you're SOL unless you want to go to the NEX5, or bigger (and it looks pretty awkward, even there).
Maybe all of those advantages aren't worth $50 (and size and weight) to you, but they are real advantages.
Yes, mirrorless will get to matching SLR, but it's not there yet.
The Sony's are pretty good, and worth considering. But they (so far) are only for certain styles of photography.
As a more general comment on the review, you should note that Sony's not terribly good with supporting their products, long-term. Look at the Alpha SLR; they've already basically discontinued that (the new A7* models have almost no connection to the older, pellicle mirror-based cameras, despite the naming).
You should also note that Sony's going in all these directions at once. Basically, they've got the money (and lack of market share) to be able to throw a lot of stuff against the wall and see what sticks.
Still, several photographers I know and respect have switched (but I should also point out that they're landscape photographers, who are least likely to be affected by Sony's shortcomings). I'm certainly not saying it isn't worth considering. Just be aware of what you're giving up, as well as what you're getting.
I'll certainly be watching. It isn't worth switching, for me, but it might be in several years. I'd certainly like to reduce weight. The D4 is a fantastic instrument, but it's definitely a heavy beast. And I don't choose light lenses for it.
20140407
Bring in the oligarchs
I'm a big fan of EJ Dionne; I somehow (not sure how, because it wasn't anything like a normal occurence for me to be reading the part of the paper where his columns end up. I saved a hard copy of it; I wish I could find it) found myself reading his column one or two days after September 11th, and it was just a fantastic read. He really did a perfect job of capturing the feelings of it.
So I started reading him fairly regularly. I soon found that he, like me, is a liberal Catholic, which certainly gives us a lot of philosophical commonality. I now hear him from time to time on NPR, which I appreciate, and I even heard him give a commencement speech once (at a friend's graduation; I had no idea he would be there).
Well, his latest column talks about how we've pretty much gotten into an oligarchic situation in the US, which is something I've believed for a long time. But his finish is absolutely perfect:
In his McCutcheon opinion, Roberts piously declares: “There is no right more basic in our democracy than the right to participate in electing our political leaders.” This lovely commitment escaped him entirely last summer when he and his allies threw out Section 4 of the Voting Rights Act. Suddenly, efforts to protect the right of minorities “to participate in electing our political leaders” took second place behind all manner of worries about how Congress had constructed the law. The decision unleashed a frenzy in Republican-controlled states to pass laws that make it harder for African Americans, Latinos and poor people to vote.
Thus has this court conferred on wealthy people the right to give vast sums of money to politicians while undercutting the rights of millions of citizens to cast a ballot.
Send in the oligarchs.
Put that last line to a Sondheim tune, and remember that the next line of that song is, "Don't bother, they're here."
So I started reading him fairly regularly. I soon found that he, like me, is a liberal Catholic, which certainly gives us a lot of philosophical commonality. I now hear him from time to time on NPR, which I appreciate, and I even heard him give a commencement speech once (at a friend's graduation; I had no idea he would be there).
Well, his latest column talks about how we've pretty much gotten into an oligarchic situation in the US, which is something I've believed for a long time. But his finish is absolutely perfect:
In his McCutcheon opinion, Roberts piously declares: “There is no right more basic in our democracy than the right to participate in electing our political leaders.” This lovely commitment escaped him entirely last summer when he and his allies threw out Section 4 of the Voting Rights Act. Suddenly, efforts to protect the right of minorities “to participate in electing our political leaders” took second place behind all manner of worries about how Congress had constructed the law. The decision unleashed a frenzy in Republican-controlled states to pass laws that make it harder for African Americans, Latinos and poor people to vote.
Thus has this court conferred on wealthy people the right to give vast sums of money to politicians while undercutting the rights of millions of citizens to cast a ballot.
Send in the oligarchs.
Put that last line to a Sondheim tune, and remember that the next line of that song is, "Don't bother, they're here."
Exercising
Just for grins, downloaded an app called Quick 7, which has a short, intense workout with a number of different exercises. And as an in-app (free) purchase, you can get Quick 4, an even shorter, tabata-based (I haven't looked up what that means) workout that takes four minutes.
I've been thinking I need to get out of my chair more often during the day (incontestably true), and thought it might make a nice break to do that workout every hour or so to enforce getting up. A five-minute break doesn't seem bad.
Well, this morning I tried it once, just to see. And granted, I wasn't holding back during the exercises. But man, I was really tired at the end. Not "I know I just pulled something"-tired, but oof, was I feeling it. Maybe I'll do it once more today, but as an hourly break? That ain't happening anytime soon, if ever.
I'm almost afraid to try the Quick 7, now. But we'll see.
I've been thinking I need to get out of my chair more often during the day (incontestably true), and thought it might make a nice break to do that workout every hour or so to enforce getting up. A five-minute break doesn't seem bad.
Well, this morning I tried it once, just to see. And granted, I wasn't holding back during the exercises. But man, I was really tired at the end. Not "I know I just pulled something"-tired, but oof, was I feeling it. Maybe I'll do it once more today, but as an hourly break? That ain't happening anytime soon, if ever.
I'm almost afraid to try the Quick 7, now. But we'll see.
Few more BMW notes
Been playing around with the 528i some more; I'm getting more and more impressed with the handling. We had a little rain today, and even on wet pavement, I had to slam it around pretty hard (while accelerating) to get even a little bit of slippage (the turns were too narrow to really try gunning it).
And the interior design is definitely sweet. Song names in Japanese can't be displayed (was surprised by that), but the controls are very easy to manage, even without looking. One thing that's a little weird to me is that the cruise control won't stay active when you shut down the engine and turn it back on, but it will still keep the last speed you set. Strange combination.
But I do really love the control layout. I can manage things in it more easily than in my car, which I've now had for seven years and change. The layout is a bit nicer, and the buttons are very well-defined. Including the key fob. After a week, I have no trouble using it without taking it out of my pocket, and I can't do that with my own. It's just a better feel for the buttons (well, mostly; it might also have something to do with me not using mine very often).
Of course, the downside is the cost. The 528i is about 50% more than I paid for mine, and I don't think it's worth that much more. Plus, fun as it is, my TL already has more performance than I need (considerably so, if I'm going to be honest).
Well, I have another year or three to think about it; I don't need a new car now. But I can definitely see the appeal.
And the interior design is definitely sweet. Song names in Japanese can't be displayed (was surprised by that), but the controls are very easy to manage, even without looking. One thing that's a little weird to me is that the cruise control won't stay active when you shut down the engine and turn it back on, but it will still keep the last speed you set. Strange combination.
But I do really love the control layout. I can manage things in it more easily than in my car, which I've now had for seven years and change. The layout is a bit nicer, and the buttons are very well-defined. Including the key fob. After a week, I have no trouble using it without taking it out of my pocket, and I can't do that with my own. It's just a better feel for the buttons (well, mostly; it might also have something to do with me not using mine very often).
Of course, the downside is the cost. The 528i is about 50% more than I paid for mine, and I don't think it's worth that much more. Plus, fun as it is, my TL already has more performance than I need (considerably so, if I'm going to be honest).
Well, I have another year or three to think about it; I don't need a new car now. But I can definitely see the appeal.
End of an era
Well, I didn't watch the last two Caps games. The first, against the Devils, I missed because I was sick. The second I'd forgotten about until I heard the result (twenty or thirty minutes after it finished).
It looks like the Caps played respectably against the Devils; 5v5 close Fenwick was slightly in their favor. And OV scored at evens, which was a nice change from the previous month (it's almost like having Beagle centering OV wasn't a good idea, or something).
They did spend too much time killing penalties (almost ten minutes), as usual allowing too many shots against (15 attempted, 10 on net; it should be noted that that those are slightly better numbers than usual, though. Still too many, but a slight improvement).
The power play seems to've done merely ok, with ten attempted shots (five on net) over nearly five minutes.
Neither power play scored, however.
The 2-1 loss certainly can't be pinned on Halak, however. His .935 save percentage is certainly all you can ask of him (realistically, at least).
Going into that game, the Caps were down to only an 84% chance of making the playoffs, even winning out. So that loss eliminated their realistic chance of making the playoffs. Which is probably just as well, given how bad the team looks.
As for the Islanders game... They won, in the shootout, but there wasn't much to like there. Kuzya across net to MarJo back across to Kuzya was a nice goal. And OV did a nice job setting up Backstrom's goal. And Holtby did a nice job (stopping a short-handed breakaway, as well as one of the goals being one that looked stopped but trickled through). But possessionally, it was pretty bad (against a so-so team, possessionally). Basically, they got lucky to win, especially when you factor in the shootout (to be clear, however, they were lucky even to get to the shootout).
I've gotta admit, at this point I'd be just as happy if they lose the rest of them, just for the minor improvement in draft position (even though it's not expected to be a deep draft; but they could move up as many as five spots). If they could do it while playing hard, so much the better.
Anyway, next game is Tuesday in St Louis, where we will probably be put out of our misery of a season (after that, a Detroit overtime loss and a Columbus win would be enough to make it a mathematical certainty).
It looks like the Caps played respectably against the Devils; 5v5 close Fenwick was slightly in their favor. And OV scored at evens, which was a nice change from the previous month (it's almost like having Beagle centering OV wasn't a good idea, or something).
They did spend too much time killing penalties (almost ten minutes), as usual allowing too many shots against (15 attempted, 10 on net; it should be noted that that those are slightly better numbers than usual, though. Still too many, but a slight improvement).
The power play seems to've done merely ok, with ten attempted shots (five on net) over nearly five minutes.
Neither power play scored, however.
The 2-1 loss certainly can't be pinned on Halak, however. His .935 save percentage is certainly all you can ask of him (realistically, at least).
Going into that game, the Caps were down to only an 84% chance of making the playoffs, even winning out. So that loss eliminated their realistic chance of making the playoffs. Which is probably just as well, given how bad the team looks.
As for the Islanders game... They won, in the shootout, but there wasn't much to like there. Kuzya across net to MarJo back across to Kuzya was a nice goal. And OV did a nice job setting up Backstrom's goal. And Holtby did a nice job (stopping a short-handed breakaway, as well as one of the goals being one that looked stopped but trickled through). But possessionally, it was pretty bad (against a so-so team, possessionally). Basically, they got lucky to win, especially when you factor in the shootout (to be clear, however, they were lucky even to get to the shootout).
I've gotta admit, at this point I'd be just as happy if they lose the rest of them, just for the minor improvement in draft position (even though it's not expected to be a deep draft; but they could move up as many as five spots). If they could do it while playing hard, so much the better.
Anyway, next game is Tuesday in St Louis, where we will probably be put out of our misery of a season (after that, a Detroit overtime loss and a Columbus win would be enough to make it a mathematical certainty).
20140402
Tipping the piper
Just briefly, the Supreme Court today decided that handing over democracy entirely to the 1% is a good move. To wit, they decided that private donors can now donate to an unlimited number of federal candidates, and donate as much as they want to a party.
At this point, the current Supreme Court is only a step away from eliminating all limits on campaign contributions. This is ridiculous.
I think we need a new government agency (well, a new part of the FEC, probably) that will be a transaction controller to force anonymization of contributions. I don't love the idea, but it at least eliminates possible quid pro quo for political contributions. If you don't know where the money came from, you won't feel an obligation to help them.
There'd be some work to do, to control how the money is disbursed (you can't just give all of it out as soon as it's received; well, maybe in the last couple days, but not before), but it would improve things, in the same way as adopting voting tactics that made it impossible to directly purchase votes.
At this point, the current Supreme Court is only a step away from eliminating all limits on campaign contributions. This is ridiculous.
I think we need a new government agency (well, a new part of the FEC, probably) that will be a transaction controller to force anonymization of contributions. I don't love the idea, but it at least eliminates possible quid pro quo for political contributions. If you don't know where the money came from, you won't feel an obligation to help them.
There'd be some work to do, to control how the money is disbursed (you can't just give all of it out as soon as it's received; well, maybe in the last couple days, but not before), but it would improve things, in the same way as adopting voting tactics that made it impossible to directly purchase votes.
Beemer for a day
I drive an Acura TL, normally, but had to take my car into the shop to fix up some damage from a minor fender-bender the other day. When talking to the rental people, I was asked, "Do you want a beamer?"
I wouldn't have guessed that a neighborhood Enterprise would even have one, but said, "Ok."
When they brought it out, it turned out to be a five-series (528i, maybe?). By this point, I was shocked.
Now, I've had a few days to play around with it, and it's mostly very nice. The only thing I don't like is how wide it is, because it's hard to get in and out of my garage. Oh, and I'm a little annoyed that there doesn't seem to be a lock/unlock button (to get all doors) on the inside.
But, on the road, it's really nice. It took only a couple minutes, with no manual perusal, to get it to sync with my phone. It automatically downloads the phone book when I get in, and automatically starts playing music from it, too.
Adjusting the seats was quick and mostly painless. The only small pain point was not realizing that the headrests were powered as well, so it took me a little bit to figure that out. But fully-powered seats adjust pretty quickly. And, of course, there's memory (I think every car with power seats now has this).
The power part is kind of a running theme, and leads to a couple things that are ... odd, but only because of that to which I'm accustomed. Everything is powered. Turn signals, paddle shifter, emergency brake; as near as I can tell, everything. The turn signals, since they don't have the manual catch for releasing them after the turn, feel weird, but they work a little better. The paddle shifter is a bit odd, since Park is a button rather than a position.
A weird consequence of that is that, to go from park to reverse, you push the shifter forward. I think I like it, but it certainly feels weird.
Thanks to the width of the car, though, stability is pretty amazing. I had to push it pretty hard to get the tires to squeal even a little bit (on dry pavement; I haven't driven it in rain, yet). Most people would not find it comfortable to be in a car turning that hard (though my kids love it, of course).
Anyway, it at least gives a feel for what you're getting for all that money. Oh, and another thing you get for it. The console will tell you what version the firmware is (and has the owner's manual, which is pretty cool). It can also be upgraded. Mixed feelings about that, for sure.
Update: typo fixed.
I wouldn't have guessed that a neighborhood Enterprise would even have one, but said, "Ok."
When they brought it out, it turned out to be a five-series (528i, maybe?). By this point, I was shocked.
Now, I've had a few days to play around with it, and it's mostly very nice. The only thing I don't like is how wide it is, because it's hard to get in and out of my garage. Oh, and I'm a little annoyed that there doesn't seem to be a lock/unlock button (to get all doors) on the inside.
But, on the road, it's really nice. It took only a couple minutes, with no manual perusal, to get it to sync with my phone. It automatically downloads the phone book when I get in, and automatically starts playing music from it, too.
Adjusting the seats was quick and mostly painless. The only small pain point was not realizing that the headrests were powered as well, so it took me a little bit to figure that out. But fully-powered seats adjust pretty quickly. And, of course, there's memory (I think every car with power seats now has this).
The power part is kind of a running theme, and leads to a couple things that are ... odd, but only because of that to which I'm accustomed. Everything is powered. Turn signals, paddle shifter, emergency brake; as near as I can tell, everything. The turn signals, since they don't have the manual catch for releasing them after the turn, feel weird, but they work a little better. The paddle shifter is a bit odd, since Park is a button rather than a position.
A weird consequence of that is that, to go from park to reverse, you push the shifter forward. I think I like it, but it certainly feels weird.
Thanks to the width of the car, though, stability is pretty amazing. I had to push it pretty hard to get the tires to squeal even a little bit (on dry pavement; I haven't driven it in rain, yet). Most people would not find it comfortable to be in a car turning that hard (though my kids love it, of course).
Anyway, it at least gives a feel for what you're getting for all that money. Oh, and another thing you get for it. The console will tell you what version the firmware is (and has the owner's manual, which is pretty cool). It can also be upgraded. Mixed feelings about that, for sure.
Update: typo fixed.
It's over
I was going to write about the last Caps games against Boston and Nashville, but after that tire fire of a game tonight against Dallas, I give up.
They actually started out pretty well, getting a number of good chances through the first eight minutes or so of the game. Then the Caps got a power play. On the power play, they quickly gave up TWO (!) breakaways, and lost the power play when Carlson hooked Garbutt to keep him from getting the shot off. All that only took about thirty seconds.
Things didn't seriously go south, though, until Dallas scored on a nice tip-in by Tyler Seguin, and the rout began. It took a while for Dallas to score a second goal, but that was all on Halak. The Caps just lost any ability to pressure Dallas, and generally looked lost.
I was going to say they looked lost in the defensive zone, but they looked lost in the neutral zone, too. And they didn't keep the puck in the offensive zone long enough to come to any sort of judgement there. More importantly, Dallas did a very nice job transitioning from D to O whenever the Caps gave up the puck, and got several breakaways.
There was the two-man clean breakaway on which Whitney scored. There was another breakaway almost right away. It was stopped, but did lead to a goal when, after a shot from the point, Erskine and Brouillette both took the same man, leaving Jeffrey alone at the side of the net, where he beat Halak (a nice overhead shot of the CF). Those two goals were on the same shift. By the fourth line. I almost turned it off right then, and wish I had.
In any event, Oates had had enough, and pulled Halak. I hope it was to send a message to the rest of the team, because it certainly wasn't Halak's fault they were down three. Hasek in his prime would have been hard-pressed to do better with that (so-called) defense in front of him.
Anyway, how much did it inspire the team? They gave up two more odd-man rushes in the next minute (yeah, Holtby looked good, too).
But it took until the last five or six minutes of the second for the Caps to even start catching up possessionally. To their credit, though, they did continue to catch up (helped by several penalties), and even managed to finish the game tied in Fenwick. Close, 5v5 Fenwick, however, was not tied. It was not even close.
And, midway through the third, Jeffrey scored again on a nice tic-tac-toe passing play. Again, fourth line. And Jeffrey, it should be noted, had just scored his first two goals of the season.
Anyway, that was enough for me. I turned it off, and missed the Caps taking their first five goal deficit of the season. Good times.
So, in the biggest games of the season, the Caps came out flat against the Bruins and got stomped. Then they played so-so against a Nashville team with no particular motivation, and were lucky to get into overtime. Then they played a hungry (and fast, it should be noted) Dallas team and just got curb-stomped. Too bad it's too late to try for lottery position.
I don't know where this team goes from here. Oates has to go. He did a very nice job getting OV back on track (and a decent job helping a few other players), but his system sucks raw eggs. It looked like the Caps were starting to get it at the end of last season, but that now appears to have been an illusion. They are not improving, and might even be getting worse.
His line combos are baffling, and he shows no sign of recognizing that some of the combos he's apparently liked are just horrible. That was Laich and Brouwer early in the season, and Beagle and OV recently. JP from Japer's Rink tweeted a couple of charts yesterday that showed that Beagle is the absolute worst player to pair with OV, both in shots generated and in shots allowed. And not by a small amount, in either case.
Oates seems to have no recognition of which defensemen are getting the job done, and which aren't. Hint: Erskine isn't, and has been an almost unmitigated disaster this season. And, McPhee, nice $2M extension there. Schmidt and Oleksy were both doing pretty well, but have been buried in Hershey for much of the season. Carrick has talent, but isn't ready for the NHL, but was allowed to stay for thirty games.
The penalty kill has basically been a disaster all season. They show almost no ability to stop the other team from getting set up in the offensive zone, and, as a result, allow roughly two shot attempts per minute. The only reason it looks somewhat respectable is because the goalies have saved 90% of the shots, which is not a sustainable formula.
And Oates' management of the goalie situations have been execrable. Holtby is far too good a goalie to be allowed to sit as much as he has since Halak arrived. And how about that three-goalie carousel in the middle of the season, with Holtby, Neuvy, and Gru? That was genius, right?
McPhee needs to go as well. He's had one good coaching hire over his career, the talent pipeline is nearly bare. His desperation trade for Erat, late last season, was a complete disaster (not helped by the fact that Oates seemed to have no idea how to use Erat's considerable talents). His agreeing to dump Perreault for a bag of pucks at the beginning of the season was mystifying. Yes, we've gotten to see Wilson more, and he definitely shows talent, but Perreault would have helped the team a ton more, this season. Especially when Grabo was injured, but even before that the difference would have been large.
Perreault: 691 minutes, 52.3% fenwick for, forty points, and I would bet many more penalties drawn than the fifteen for which he's been called
Wilson: 572 minutes, 46.1% fenwick for, ten points, and we really don't want to talk about the PIMs
And I've ignored, of course, that center is a much more valuable position than wing.
Moving on... I don't know about the players. Erskine should be waived, for sure. Even if they only reclaim half of his cap hit and have to play him in Hershey, that's better than playing him in Washington.
Grabo needs to be re-signed, stat! Penner should be re-signed almost as fast. I don't think either should be given more than three year deals, though.
I'm slightly ambivalent, because I don't think Laich's been healthy all season (so I'm not sure how much of his poor play is age, and how much injury), but I'm leaning toward saying he should be let go (maybe via compliance buy-out).
Halak should be allowed to walk. He's pretty good, but unless his contract demands are far less than I expect, he won't be worth it. In fact, I wouldn't want him to stick around for more than one year under any circumstances (well, unless he'd take about a third of what I expect he'll get, I suppose), and I can't see him agreeing to a one year deal. Call up Gru next year, and save the money. The drop in performance will be negligible, at best.
Beyond that, I'm low on ideas. Volpatti certainly isn't helping the team, but as a league-minimum player on the fourth line, he's not hurting it either.
Beagle hasn't helped the team much this season, although much of the onus on that goes on Oates, for playing him way over his head. Beagle's a decent checker, penalty killer, and face-off guy. Use him like that, and he won't be hurting the team at his salary. As top line center, he's the punchline of a really terrible joke.
Brouwer? There've certainly been times, this season, when I would've been glad to see him jettisoned (especially when he was constantly paired with Laich), but he's not a bad player. Can't decide if he's really worth that salary, but maybe he is. Certainly wouldn't mind seeing him replaced with someone who drives play, though that would almost certainly require trading Troy.
MarJo has improved a lot this season, I think. He hasn't taken advantage of his speed quite as much, but he's much stronger on the puck, to the point that he's moderately useful in a grinding, cycling game.
Schmidt can certainly be called up; he'll help the team.
All of which really leaves me wondering where the room is to improve the team. There really is a lot of talent there, and they've terribly underperformed that talent level. Maybe big changes at the top, combined with one or two small tweaks in the lineup, will result in significantly improved results. We can hope, anyway.
FWIW, next game is Friday in New Jersey. I can't decide if I'll bother to watch.
They actually started out pretty well, getting a number of good chances through the first eight minutes or so of the game. Then the Caps got a power play. On the power play, they quickly gave up TWO (!) breakaways, and lost the power play when Carlson hooked Garbutt to keep him from getting the shot off. All that only took about thirty seconds.
Things didn't seriously go south, though, until Dallas scored on a nice tip-in by Tyler Seguin, and the rout began. It took a while for Dallas to score a second goal, but that was all on Halak. The Caps just lost any ability to pressure Dallas, and generally looked lost.
I was going to say they looked lost in the defensive zone, but they looked lost in the neutral zone, too. And they didn't keep the puck in the offensive zone long enough to come to any sort of judgement there. More importantly, Dallas did a very nice job transitioning from D to O whenever the Caps gave up the puck, and got several breakaways.
There was the two-man clean breakaway on which Whitney scored. There was another breakaway almost right away. It was stopped, but did lead to a goal when, after a shot from the point, Erskine and Brouillette both took the same man, leaving Jeffrey alone at the side of the net, where he beat Halak (a nice overhead shot of the CF). Those two goals were on the same shift. By the fourth line. I almost turned it off right then, and wish I had.
In any event, Oates had had enough, and pulled Halak. I hope it was to send a message to the rest of the team, because it certainly wasn't Halak's fault they were down three. Hasek in his prime would have been hard-pressed to do better with that (so-called) defense in front of him.
Anyway, how much did it inspire the team? They gave up two more odd-man rushes in the next minute (yeah, Holtby looked good, too).
But it took until the last five or six minutes of the second for the Caps to even start catching up possessionally. To their credit, though, they did continue to catch up (helped by several penalties), and even managed to finish the game tied in Fenwick. Close, 5v5 Fenwick, however, was not tied. It was not even close.
And, midway through the third, Jeffrey scored again on a nice tic-tac-toe passing play. Again, fourth line. And Jeffrey, it should be noted, had just scored his first two goals of the season.
Anyway, that was enough for me. I turned it off, and missed the Caps taking their first five goal deficit of the season. Good times.
So, in the biggest games of the season, the Caps came out flat against the Bruins and got stomped. Then they played so-so against a Nashville team with no particular motivation, and were lucky to get into overtime. Then they played a hungry (and fast, it should be noted) Dallas team and just got curb-stomped. Too bad it's too late to try for lottery position.
I don't know where this team goes from here. Oates has to go. He did a very nice job getting OV back on track (and a decent job helping a few other players), but his system sucks raw eggs. It looked like the Caps were starting to get it at the end of last season, but that now appears to have been an illusion. They are not improving, and might even be getting worse.
His line combos are baffling, and he shows no sign of recognizing that some of the combos he's apparently liked are just horrible. That was Laich and Brouwer early in the season, and Beagle and OV recently. JP from Japer's Rink tweeted a couple of charts yesterday that showed that Beagle is the absolute worst player to pair with OV, both in shots generated and in shots allowed. And not by a small amount, in either case.
Oates seems to have no recognition of which defensemen are getting the job done, and which aren't. Hint: Erskine isn't, and has been an almost unmitigated disaster this season. And, McPhee, nice $2M extension there. Schmidt and Oleksy were both doing pretty well, but have been buried in Hershey for much of the season. Carrick has talent, but isn't ready for the NHL, but was allowed to stay for thirty games.
The penalty kill has basically been a disaster all season. They show almost no ability to stop the other team from getting set up in the offensive zone, and, as a result, allow roughly two shot attempts per minute. The only reason it looks somewhat respectable is because the goalies have saved 90% of the shots, which is not a sustainable formula.
And Oates' management of the goalie situations have been execrable. Holtby is far too good a goalie to be allowed to sit as much as he has since Halak arrived. And how about that three-goalie carousel in the middle of the season, with Holtby, Neuvy, and Gru? That was genius, right?
McPhee needs to go as well. He's had one good coaching hire over his career, the talent pipeline is nearly bare. His desperation trade for Erat, late last season, was a complete disaster (not helped by the fact that Oates seemed to have no idea how to use Erat's considerable talents). His agreeing to dump Perreault for a bag of pucks at the beginning of the season was mystifying. Yes, we've gotten to see Wilson more, and he definitely shows talent, but Perreault would have helped the team a ton more, this season. Especially when Grabo was injured, but even before that the difference would have been large.
Perreault: 691 minutes, 52.3% fenwick for, forty points, and I would bet many more penalties drawn than the fifteen for which he's been called
Wilson: 572 minutes, 46.1% fenwick for, ten points, and we really don't want to talk about the PIMs
And I've ignored, of course, that center is a much more valuable position than wing.
Moving on... I don't know about the players. Erskine should be waived, for sure. Even if they only reclaim half of his cap hit and have to play him in Hershey, that's better than playing him in Washington.
Grabo needs to be re-signed, stat! Penner should be re-signed almost as fast. I don't think either should be given more than three year deals, though.
I'm slightly ambivalent, because I don't think Laich's been healthy all season (so I'm not sure how much of his poor play is age, and how much injury), but I'm leaning toward saying he should be let go (maybe via compliance buy-out).
Halak should be allowed to walk. He's pretty good, but unless his contract demands are far less than I expect, he won't be worth it. In fact, I wouldn't want him to stick around for more than one year under any circumstances (well, unless he'd take about a third of what I expect he'll get, I suppose), and I can't see him agreeing to a one year deal. Call up Gru next year, and save the money. The drop in performance will be negligible, at best.
Beyond that, I'm low on ideas. Volpatti certainly isn't helping the team, but as a league-minimum player on the fourth line, he's not hurting it either.
Beagle hasn't helped the team much this season, although much of the onus on that goes on Oates, for playing him way over his head. Beagle's a decent checker, penalty killer, and face-off guy. Use him like that, and he won't be hurting the team at his salary. As top line center, he's the punchline of a really terrible joke.
Brouwer? There've certainly been times, this season, when I would've been glad to see him jettisoned (especially when he was constantly paired with Laich), but he's not a bad player. Can't decide if he's really worth that salary, but maybe he is. Certainly wouldn't mind seeing him replaced with someone who drives play, though that would almost certainly require trading Troy.
MarJo has improved a lot this season, I think. He hasn't taken advantage of his speed quite as much, but he's much stronger on the puck, to the point that he's moderately useful in a grinding, cycling game.
Schmidt can certainly be called up; he'll help the team.
All of which really leaves me wondering where the room is to improve the team. There really is a lot of talent there, and they've terribly underperformed that talent level. Maybe big changes at the top, combined with one or two small tweaks in the lineup, will result in significantly improved results. We can hope, anyway.
FWIW, next game is Friday in New Jersey. I can't decide if I'll bother to watch.
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