20131029

Syria-l notes

I've been forgetting, for quite a while now, to note one thing about the chemical weapons debates ongoing in Syria.  And that is that inspectors are supposed to remove existing chemical weapons (which I have no doubt of their ability to do), but also to remove the ability to make more.

This latter I am extremely skeptical of: if this is even possible, then it absolutely destroys any chance of Russia's claims of rebel-based launching of the August attacks.  If the rebels have the equipment to make sarin gas (as has been claimed), then the government will certainly be able to do it, no matter what the chemical weapons inspectors do.

I guess we'll see.

And in other news of Syria's devolution into a third-world country, polio is making a comeback there.  NPR was reporting, earlier today, that there have been fourteen (I think) cases very recently, as a result of the breakdown of their extremely good pre-war vaccination program.  I feel even more sorry for the children over there.  With apologies to Dr Seuss, let's hope that vaccinations are still widespread enough to keep the outbreak from biggerer and biggerering.

Mr Potato-head?

[note: I wrote this a couple of weeks ago, but apparently forgot to post it. *sigh*]

I read Posnanski's recent article about managing a baseball team, and it got me thinking about hockey.

The article talks about how he liked A League of Their Own's manager, Jimmy Dugan,

because, especially early in his career as manager of the Rockford Peaches, he had a tendency to fall asleep in the dugout.

Managers, it seems to me, could afford to do that a bit more often. If I was an owner, I’d put pillows in there.


And that got me thinking about a PPP article from this summer (so it predated Liles getting sent down), about whether GM Nonis is better than a potato:

Rules: The potato cannot extend the Leafs' UFAs, nor can it sign new ones. We will consider Colton Orr's extension a "July 5th" move. It will not undo trades, so Bolland and Bernier are still on the roster. Lastly, the potato must re-sign RFAs at 200% of their previous AAV - it's a potato, not a skilled negotiator.



Betteridge's Law suggests what the writer's opinion on the matter was, and the poll on the page overwhelmingly agreed. Let him sleep, indeed.

Let's at least be glad that McPhee, for all his flaws (and his inexplicably long tenure) is certainly better than the potato.



Clickbatingest clickbait that ever was clickbaited

XKCD, as usual, is hilarious. I'm a bit behind on my reading of it (probably two months), but did have this clickbaiting headlines for old events pointed out to me.

I don't recognize all of the events mentioned, but some are really great. I wonder if the female suffrage one was implying how a great deal of the financial support for that movement came from Prohibition supporters. The penecillin one got me to look something up... I remember hearing of Fleming being supported (I thought it was adopted) by Churchill's father. The only reference I can find is this story from snopes, and maybe that's what I heard. Ah well.

The one about the Berlin Airlift, amused me. It also reminded me of my trip to Germany for a month-long exchange, when I was sixteen; that was where I first heard about the airlift. I think I didn't even know that West Berlin was completely surrounded by East Germany, before that trip (which explains why the capital of the country moved to Bonn during that... interregnum, for lack of a better term).  Anyway, hearing about that airlift in the Rathaus in Berlin was pretty cool.

The 1968 reference, I had to look up. I knew about two of the three assassinations, but didn't realize they were that year. Also, I had forgotten that JFK was five years earlier (I had assumed he was one of the ones to which reference was made).

The Challenger reference was very creative, but mightily ghoulish (though not as much as the Nazi and Titanic ones). Anyway, the whole collection was fantastic; the idea was amazing.

Nuck'ling under

Well, there was a lot of emphasis, before the Caps game, on getting a strong start to the game. And they certainly came out firing, getting a penalty shot eighty seconds in, and drawing another penalty shortly thereafter. But they couldn't solve Luongo in those prime opportunities, and play started balancing out quickly.

Vancouver scored halfway through the period, when Neuvy left a juicy rebound close in, and the defense wasn't able to get over to clear it out. Kassian skated in before they could get there, and wristed a shot over Neuvy's glove. But the Caps didn't fold it in, and got a nice offensive flurry from the third line three minutes later, culminating in Chimmer tapping in Green's shot from the point.

At that point, overall (ie: not 5-on-5 close) fenwick was tied, and things were looking decent.

But it was a steep downhill slide from that point forward, possession-wise. The Caps did get the next goal (two minutes into the third), but that was about the only remaining bright spot. And the Canucks weren't terribly thrown off by losing the lead, as it took them only a minute to tie it up, and two more minutes to regain the lead.

I'd like to say that the Caps took control of the game after that to try to regain the lead, but that's not the case (although giving up a power play in the middle of that span didn't help). In fact, they only got four shot attempts the rest of the game (and one of those, I believe, was short-handed).

In the end, the game was an absolute disaster at even strength. In thirty-one minutes, 5-on-5 close, the Caps barely cleared 1/3 of corsi and fenwick. That's just a recipe for getting blown out, regularly.

The power play was handled pretty well by Vancouver; they put a man on OV, and dared the Caps to beat them with the rest of the team. Brouwer did get one good chance, but most of the power play shots were by Green, from up top. I think OV needed to take himself farther out of the play, to make more space for everyone else (and to give himself a chance for the occasional dart in behind the defender). In any event, in four power plays (two of which were abbreviated), there were only four shots. That's not bad, but it's unlikely to get it done against a good goaltender like Luongo.

And on the flip side, they gave up fifteen power play shots to Vancouver (on six opportunities). Somehow, they didn't allow any goals; I can only attribute that to a combination of good goaltending and an immense amount of luck.

I'm getting to the point of thinking something is fundamentally broken with this team, and I think it's largely a matter of effort. They have a lot of talent; they're not going to push the post-2004 lockout scoring record, but there is a lot of talent. But they can't sustain top effort over an entire game, or something.

I'm not sure what it is, but this team is just a little ways away from getting consistently blown out. I thought this was going to be a solid playoffs team, but I don't see that at all, now. I see a team lucky to be only two points off a point-a-game pace (tied for ninth), and headed in the wrong direction. If the goaltending falters even a little, they're headed for a very steep decline; they're just giving up far too many shots.

Well, maybe a visit to the City of Brotherly Love (boy, isn't that a joke, in this day and age?) will give them a bit of a boost. Let's hope. Go Caps!


20131028

Flame Out

One night thing about the last game last night.  I was able to watch the entire thing live, which was pretty cool.  Unfortunately, I'd observed before that the Caps were showing possible signs of improvement.  Well, last night certainly put the kibosh on those thoughts.

They came out very flat to start, and Calgary pushed them into their zone hard, to start, and kept them penned in for the first minute.  And sadly, they did not get out on a controlled breakout.  They only made it out after the Flames had started the scoring.  Things didn't improve materially right away, and a minute and a half later the Flames had a power play.

The Caps weathered that power play, but it was a combination of very good luck and excellent goaltending by Holtby, as the Flames put five shots on net in those two minutes.  Things only improved slightly from there, as the top line put a very good shift in (including a terrible whiff by OV), but that was the only sign of life before Hudler put the Flames up by another three minutes after the power play expired.

Things still didn't look so great, until the second line got a nice shift in, getting all the defense to focus on Fehr and Grabovski while Chimmer cycled back behind the Flames net.  Grabo hit him as he came back out front, and Chimmer snuck it by Ramo to cut the lead in half.

But less than a minute later, Camalleri tipped in a shot by Wideman to restore the earlier deficit.  Oates decided to shake things up at that point, and put Neuwirth in (I assume it wasn't done as a criticism of Holtby, who had, I thought, looked pretty good, despite a distinct lack of support).

At that point, with seven minutes left in the first, things finally started to look a bit more even, but nothing else was put past Ramo.  Even a power play with a bit over a minute left was not enough to

In the second, play leaned slightly in the Caps favor, and Volpatti did score his first goal with the Caps, but that was the extent of the positives.

To start the third, things were looking better for the Caps.  Some of that was due to Calgary not seeking to press its advantage.  In fact, they seemed quite content to just play defense for about half the period.  And the Caps were generating some chances during that time.  But then Calgary got an offensive zone faceoff, and Camalleri put the faceoff win past Neuvy to bump the margin back up to two.  Oddly, Calgary started getting more offense after that, and scored again four minutes later to remove any doubt about the game result.

And that was when I turned it off, which seems to've been a good decision.

Overall, the power play was decent; seven shots in four chances is pretty good, although there were no goals.  The penalty kill got the job done, although it wasn't pretty (in particular, that first kill was wretched, although the other two weren't great, either).

But the even strength play was truly horrendous.  In fact, I think I'd rate this as the worst game of the season by the Caps.  Corsi and Fenwick, 5-on-5 close, were both really terrible (which was no surprise, after watching); Fenwick was about 29%.  It would take astoundingly good luck to win a game that way, so the final score was no surprise.

And it means that the game against Vancouver does not appear likely to be a close one (although I haven't looked to see if the Canucks are as strong a possession team with Tortorella instead of Vigneault).  Let's hope appearances are deceiving.

20131025

What do I do?

I recently discovered, thanks to the wonder of YouTube, and old game show from the 50s and 60s, called What's My Line.  It has a moderator, who attempts to clarify (or cloud) the issue, and four panelists who try to guess the profession of the guest.  Essentially, the panelists ask yes/no questions of the guest, who must answer honestly (well, with one or two exceptions), with the questioning stopping with ten no answers, a correct identification, or occasionally on time (or when the moderator decided the questioning was going nowhere.

It's interesting on several different levels.  First, it's a hilarious show.  The moderator, John Daly, was very funny, and did a great job of keeping things going.  It also had guests with some very odd jobs (dice pip painter, broadway orchestra conductor, rockette, journalist, rocket scientist, crocodile hunter), some of which led to some really interesting lines of questioning.  And many of those odd jobs no longer exist, which makes for some interesting social commentary.  Also, it was very noticeably a New York City show; something which doesn't happen anymore.  Another striking thing about it was the jokes are generally quite erudite and sophisticated.  Low-brow humor appears only by implication.

And eventually, they started having celebrities (singly, or in groups) appear on the show, mostly with the panelists being blindfolded.  This provided some interesting insight into those celebrities.

Anyway, a very fun show.  I wish we had shows like that around today.

Falling from grace

A friend introduced me to Wong Kar-Wai's masterpiece, Chungking Express, a number of years ago.  I got it on laserdisc, then on DVD (twice; once US, once HK), and finally on Blu-ray.  So I'm a little bit of a fan.

But I've known for a long time that it was split, during production, into two pieces.  One was the actual Chungking Express release, and the second was later released as Fallen Angels.

I've had the latter for a while; my in-laws brought me over a copy from Hong Kong quite some time ago.  But for some reason, it took me a long time to remember it was there.

Well, I finally remembered a week or two ago, so I took the opportunity to watch it.

I was glad I did, although I wish I'd rewatched Chungking Express more recently.

What really struck me about the "sequel" was how dysfunctional the new people were.  The originals were an interesting cast, with some unusual quirks, but the newly introduced ones?  Very strange.

One was a hit-man, who didn't want to make any decisions.  Another was his... agent, for lack of a better term.  Another had no regular occupation, but got by by opening (other people's) shops at night, and "selling" goods and services (really closer to blackmail, the way he did it).

There were a couple of others.  And some of the original cast came back (one, in particular, but others made cameos, or appeared differently).

It was really striking, how similar the parts with the same cast members were, which contrasted pretty harshly with the other parts.

As usual, the camerawork was very... experimental.  It worked, but gave an otherworldly feel to some of the movie.

Another thing that struck me was how old the movie was.  Not that it's ancient, but just how much some of Hong Kong had changed since then (being there earlier this year helped a lot with noticing that).

In the end, I found it interesting, and mostly enjoyable (some of the music was particularly good), but it lost most, if not all, of the charm of the original.  So while I can see myself watching it again (in particular, I want to watch it back-to-back with Chungking Express), I don't see myself watching it repeatedly, as I've done with Express.  And I probably will just stick with my HK DVD, instead of getting the blu-ray I linked up above.

Capping the geyser

I almost managed to watch the entirety of last night's Caps-Oilers game live, but some of it was on (slight) tape delay.  It was with very mixed feelings that I did so, however.

To start with, the lineup was identical to last game (and that's both good and bad, of course).

The first period very much felt like the Caps were getting their asses kicked, possessionally.  It felt like the Oilers had the puck a lot more, and for sure, they kept the Caps penned in several times.  Even in those times, though, the Caps did a pretty good job staying with their men.  The few breakdowns they had were brief, and Holtby was there to make the save for all of them.

The lone big, bright spot was that the top line looked pretty good (much better than the others, for sure).  And they executed their becoming-standard face-off play of Backstrom winning across to MarJo, who touches it back to OV for the shot and score shortly before the end of the period.

I must admit, though, that I was shocked to look, at the end of the period, and see that Corsi, Fenwick, and shots were all tied or only off by one in favor of the Jets.  It really felt a lot less even than that.  For sure, the Jets had better chances, but Holtby was there to slam the door.

I didn't check the numbers at the end of the second, but it felt more even.  Maybe it was just a matter of getting pinned deep fewer times.  And the scoring continued to favor Washington, as Ward tipped in a Carlson shot from the point (originally credited to Chimmer, but changed a few minutes later).

And Holtby continued to be up to all challenges to come his way.  And the defense felt a bit better; I don't remember so many really alarming chances as in the first.

In the third, the Caps felt more calm; less desperate.  And they played well, continuing to create chances.  And the top line finished off an excellent shift with a beautiful passing play.  OV had the puck on the right, on the outside of the faceoff circle.  He threw it all the way across to MarJo, towards the bottom of the opposite faceoff circle.  Nicky was in the middle, near the net, and got his stick on the ice in time for MarJo to toss it back to him for a pretty tip-in.

The Caps generated a steady pressure over the next ten minutes or so, eventually leading to a very nice goal from the second line.  Grabo carried across the blue line, saw Chimmer streaking ahead on the outside, and put it through the defenseman's legs to Chimmer.  Ol' stone hands then put a very nice shot into the top corner of the opposite side to put the final nail in the Oilers' coffin.

At that point, I pretty much stopped paying attention, and the Caps pretty much stopped trying to score.  But it mostly worked out.  The Oilers were able to get one back, and ruin Holtby's shutout, but the outcome was never in doubt.

Schmidt continues to look good on the back end.  He had one small screw-up in the first (actually, I thought the Oiler he was defending tripped him with their skate, but there was no call) that led to a scoring chance, but was otherwise very solid.

And the defense, as a whole, looked a lot better.  They were a bit less aggressive, and the forwards did a good job covering when they did go forward.  The result was many fewer "ten-bell" saves, and few, if any, odd man rushes or breakaways.

And as a whole, they looked a lot better at even strength.  Corsi and Fenwick were split, with both within a few percent of even.

I'd still like to see more chances pinning the other team deep, and less times of them getting pinned, but they didn't look bad even when they did.

The penalty kill got the job done, but did allow an awful lot of shots.  They're generally going to give up a goal or two, giving up as many shots as they did.  Something else to work on (although, to be fair, the Oilers do do a good job of moving the puck quickly on the power play, which makes things tough on the defense).

The power play wasn't terribly powerful, but did generate a bit of pressure.  Given their overall record, we'll give them a pass on this game.

Overall, things were moving in the right direction, but they still need to move a lot further, that way.  I'd feel a lot better if they'd come out significantly ahead in Corsi and Fenwick at least once or twice.  Saturday, in Calgary, is their next chance.  Go Caps!

Leavin', on a jet plane...

[Again, I wrote this a couple of days ago.]

I was able to watch last night's Caps/Jets game in toto, happily. Unfortunately, it looked much like the previous game.

One early change was that Erskine was back from injury, and pushed Urbom back into the press box. Otherwise, offensive lines and defensive pairs were the same.

The first period was fairly quiet, with a lot of back and forth. The Jets started pulling ahead halfway through, in possession, but were unable to break through. And the Caps caught back up close to the end. But they were unable to solve Pavelec, as well.

In the second period, all hell broke loose. The second line mounted a strong charge a couple minutes in, culminating in Grabo slotting home a rebound from an Erskine shot three minutes in. Things were looking fairly good from that, especially when, a few minutes later, the Caps got a power play. Things looked pretty good through the first three-quarters of a minute of that, but then a good defensive play led to a short-handed breakaway and a short-handed goal by Little. Washington got a little pressure, but no score, on the rest of the power play. And then things went south, with Clitsome scoring to give Winnipeg the lead.

Things went back and forth, with Winnipeg getting a number of breakaway opportunities, but no goals. Then MarJo sprung OV for a breakaway, and he backhanded it past Pavelec to tie things up. Things were really looking good when OV scored again, a couple minutes later, three seconds after a faceoff caused by his own near-miss shot. But Wheeler deflected in a fairly soft point shot by Kane in the final minute to knot things up again.

The third period was much like the second, with Washington getting more zone time (I think; that's certainly what it felt like) but Winnipeg getting a number of breakaways and odd-man rushes. But Brouwer and Little were the only ones to find the back of the net, and regulation ended in a tie.

Overtime started well for the Caps, with them getting quite a bit of zone time (although I certainly wondered about Backstrom and Brouwer being out together). But they didn't get any shots during that minute or so, and it was all Jets from there on out. But Holtby, happily, was up to the task.

Both coaches started the shootout with a pair of the goal scorers, but all of them were stopped. Then Ladd and Backstrom both score. Then the teams started digging a bit deeper, and Jokinen, Laich, Setoguchi, and Brouwer all scored. Finally, Kane was stopped by Holtby (in a play that looked remarkably similar to the attempts of Wheeler and Little), and Erat got a chance. They didn't even give his career shootout record, but he managed to go 5-hole on Pavelec to seal the win.

Several things struck me about all this. One, the Caps aren't very good, offensively, in the shootout. The two best Caps had career marks of 35%. Three of the Jets were better than that, and a fourth, I believe, was very close.

More generally, in the game, it was similar to the game before, with lots of defensemen pushing the play leading to a boatload of odd-man rushes the other way. This is not working; it needs to be abandoned, or the wings need to get a lot better at covering. It looked close enough for them to be able to learn against Columbus; it did not, against Winnipeg.

Perhaps related (or maybe not, I'm not sure), but the power play looked only ok. Part of that was not doing as well on the faceoffs. But they gave up several breakaways the other direction that led to Winnipeg having only one fewer short-handed shot (seven) than Washington did on the power play. And the same number of goals. Ugly.

Green was held out of the entire overtime, and the shootout. I suspect that either he was hurt by a hit late in the game (goodness, I hope not) or Oates decided he was a culprit in too many of those breakaways (I only tracked the cause of a couple of them. One by Oleksy trying to duplicate his success last game; that led to a 3-on-1 with Erskine defending. Somehow, Big John got the stop, but Wilson immediately got called for crosschecking, in trying to prevent rebound attempts. And the power play problems were definitely Green or Carlson (Green is more likely)). We'll have to see.

In terms of possession, it was not a good game. The Caps did well with the score tied (razor-thin edge), but poorly otherwise.

Kane's line was particularly good, showing a lot of speed and power (Byfuglien, backing them up, contributed to the latter). Little was also causing a lot of havok around Washington's back line.

Holtby, despite allowing four goals (on 47 shots), actually had a fantastic night. He stopped an amazing number of in-close shots, and looked good in the shootout. I'm actually surprised he didn't get one of the stars of the night.