How 'Bout Them Giants?

I wrote recently that I couldn't really see much reason to favor the Giants in this series, but they've certainly been kicking butt. I still don't think the Giants pitching was vastly superior to that of the Rangers, but it has sure shown up more in this series.

Of course, the Giants are hardly an offensive powerhouse, but their offense sure showed up for the first two games. As I said at the time, you never can tell.

But I ran across this page a couple of days ago, and was very surprised at its conclusion. Given the way things have gone, I suppose it deserves more credit than I gave it when I read it.

I'm a little curious about the method, though. It seems like this problem is one that a regression would do a very good job of sussing out. Unfortunately, I know approximately squat about statistics, and am too lazy to look up how to do one, but this seems custom-made for that method. And I would think things like adjusted scoring (for and against) would be very significant terms in that regression. As might team UZR, bases stolen, and maybe team wRC+ (although it might just be more efficient to do team runs for, relative to league).

In any event, I am glad to see that game five is going more the way game one was expected to go. I was very disappointed in that one. I guess we'll see how the rest of the series (game?) goes.