20131231

Sabre-metrics

Oddly (well, maybe not, if we consider that it's against the Sabres), tonight's matchup between the Caps and Sabres was almost a mirror image of the Rangers game.

The Caps actually put up a dominating performance (70% Fenwick for (all situations)), and just peppered Miller with fifty shots.  I'm pretty sure that's their best performance of the season.

Unfortunately, Miller was playing like someone who really wants to start for the US in the Olympics, and stopped forty-nine of those shots.  It's true that they didn't get as many screened and deflection shots (or quick one-timers) as you would like, but they still "should" have scored more.

Gru was going again for the Caps, and the defense kept the shots against him down to seventeen (kudos for that; I suspect it was their best game of the season for that, as well).

And I should point out that there was about seven minutes of four-on-four in the game (two minutes of matching penalties and five minutes of overtime), and the Caps were even more dominating in those stretches.

Unfortunately, all of that was merely preamble to the shootout, which ended up going to the sixth round.  For the first five rounds, Gru matched Miller by stopping everyone (including a great save where a shot rang off the iron, bounced off his leg, and was then caught before it could go into the net), but he was beaten in the sixth.

A bit of a frustrating game (since Miller looked so good), but actually the most encouraging one in almost three weeks.  In fact, it was the first one to push the rolling ten-game average of fenwick close upwards since the 4-1 victory over the Rangers.  Let's hope it isn't just a mirage.

Next chance to see is tomorrow in Ottawa.  I'd expect that Holtby will get the nod, but we'll see.  Go Caps!

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