The forecast for this morning, as of my going to bed, was for 30F, and dry.
So I dressed in a light base-layer shirt, softshell jacket, bib shorts, leg warmers, socks, skullcap, and boots. That is, normal clothes for right at freezing (actually, a tad warmer, as I sometimes just wear a summer jersey under the jacket at that temperature). It turns out it was only 23F (which I didn't find out until I returned), plus the group ride wasn't happening, so it was supposed to be an easy day of riding today. The intersection of temperature, clothing, and exertion level was just not right.
It didn't start out too bad. I was pretty sure it was colder than thirty, just based on the amount of frost on car windows, but it didn't feel bad.
After a couple of miles, I got on the bike trail at the normal place, and things still didn't seem too bad. I was feeling it a little on my lower torso when I sat upright, but that's about it. After getting a mile or two down the trail, it started feeling even colder, and that's when things went downhill. Next, I had to zip my jacket all the way up to the top (which doesn't sound like much, but I hadn't been doing it recently). Then my fingers started getting chilled (ok, that was no unexpected).
When my legs started getting cold, I decided I needed to cut things short from my planned 20-25 miles, even if only to go home and get more clothes on. So I turned back on the roads, and even cut it a mile or so shorter than my original turn-back plan. But it was still painful; I needed to speed up, just to keep myself warm.
I noticed the roads were a little bit warmer, but probably only a couple degrees. It certainly wasn't enough to stay out longer.
And going home turned out to be a longer trip than I'd expected; by the time I got home, I was almost at eleven miles. But after getting inside, I didn't even slightly feel like going back out. I came in, got my daughter to go back to bed, and then got breakfast.
Digesting breakfast was enough to leave me shivering from cold; not a pleasant feeling at all. I've been ok since taking my shower, but it wasn't fun.
Now I know: for an "easy" day, I need an extra layer, top and bottom, to do it. The fingers are still an unknown, but I think they'll be decent if the rest of me is warm. Unpleasant, but decent.
The next two days are supposed to be right around freezing when I ride. If one is colder than projected, I'll do a harder ride that day. If both are, I guess I'll need to go back more quickly, and add that extra layer on Monday.